A new longer term approach to scenario planning is needed. Scenario planning should extend out to 2050, beyond the 15-year time horizon indicated in ACER’s draft scenario guidelines.
SuperNode, as part of currENT – the European association of innovative grid companies – has responded to ACER (European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators) consultation on the ‘Framework Guidelines on Scenarios for Network Development Planning’.
SuperNode CEO John Fitzgerald believes that ACER‘s proposed guidelines are in breach of recently adopted EU regulation and ACER’s own stated objective to establish scenarios for EU-wide decarbonisation. Commenting on the draft guidelines, he said:
“Scenarios are the very foundation for planning and developing energy infrastructure. At the moment, none of the scenarios used by the European grid operators reflect the decision to decarbonise Europe’s economies before 2050. Europe must establish scenarios for a carbon neutral 2050 and work backwards from there and ACER’s recommendations should reflect that. Without this long-term approach, the result will be a sub-optimal, expensive and inefficient European energy system.”
Scenario planning out to 2050 would incentivise and optimise anticipatory investment. There are certain anticipatory investments which would contribute to a decarbonised 2050 but do not offer net benefits in isolation. The full benefits of these projects are not captured by the current approach and are thus challenging to develop. This is a significant shortcoming of the current approach as it will not necessarily result in the most efficient pan-European system.
Finally, currENT recommends including intergovernmental commitments in their scenarios. For example, on the 12 September, the nine members of the North Seas Energy Cooperation (NSEC) agreed to 260GW of offshore wind by 2050.
ACER’s Scenario Guidelines are planned to be adopted by 24 January 2023.
CurrENT’s full submission can be found here.
ACER’s consultation can be found here.