Future Insight Blog #4 – The Politics of the Pan European Supergrid

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In a series of blogs, Eddie O’Connor will examine how Europe will meet it’s Paris decarbonisation goals.

 

 

In this blog post, Eddie discusses how the supergrid discussed in Blog Post 3 will require changes in politics to operate.

 

Much has been made of the loss of confidence of big business in the structures of the EU.  There has been intense, divisive debate about immigration into the various countries of the EU.  Recent history leads many to conclude that the EU is bad at innovation.  Brexit deflects policy makers, and indeed denudes some of the policy community of its brightest talent.  Populists everywhere blame the EU for the ills of their society, just as from time immemorial, imagined tormentors, usually minorities have been blamed for people’s current plight.

Notwithstanding all of this the EU is a powerful inclusive force for progress in European society.  We have a bulwark against the aggression of Russia or any other third country.  We are dragging, albeit slowly, countries on our eastern front from the historical depths of totalitarianism.  The positive that can be taken from all the Polish and Hungarian anti-democratic machinations is that none of them want to leave the EU.  Indeed, the EU efforts, in the Ukraine thanks to the work of Pat Cox, hold out the prospects of eventual real democracy there.

All that is positive, however, can’t hide the fact that we are failing in our Paris decarbonisation goals.  Whereas we have proposed a pathway to 2030, of a 32% penetration of renewables into our electricity system, more than 2/3 remains to be done.

And it is the difficult two thirds.

We could try attach renewables to various points on our existing grids, but because of overcapacity in the transmission grid designs that can only proceed to a certain point.  We eventually run out of grid, out of community support, and out of development areas of sufficient wind speed.

We must go offshore.

And we can’t increment our way there.

Floating offshore offers us the opportunity of developing areas further from the coast where marine life and coastal towns remain unaffected. Where these areas offer wind speeds and capacity factors that onshore can only dream of.

The thinking and the institutional framework that has served us for the past hundred years is now at the limit of its capability.  The monopolised mind set of current transmission service providers is now a barrier to achieving total decarbonisation.

Consider this arrangement of a new European grid, which could, by capturing sufficient renewable energy in the peripheries of the continent, supply all the EU’s current and future needs.

This is an indicative map of the Supergrid that could and will supply all of Europe’s electricity.  Whether it can be done by 2050 depends on whether the next Commission, Parliament, and Council put the policy framework in place to allow and incentivise it to happen. This is a European project that would require all members to contribute at a manufacturing scale unseen before.

So why should the EU (and even including the UK and Norway) go down the Supergrid path?

  1. The resources are there. The above map has been designed to facilitate renewables in areas of high wind speeds, and high irradiation, and marrying these to the technologies that are currently in existence.
  2. All the resources are in European lands and seas, fully within our control.
  3. Once built this infrastructure will serve the people of Europe indefinitely into the future. It is fully sustainable.  It matters not what the Russians do or whether there is major conflict in the Middle East.  Geo politically it renders Europe independent of US and Chinese interference in one of the critical areas needed for human existence; energy supply
  4. The fuel is free. Currently Europe spends, between subsidies to fossil fuels and payments for fuels themselves, over €500 billion each year.  Again the fuel will remain free.
  5. In terms of attracting global monetary flows in support of new industry the continent that enjoys a free marginal cost of electricity, which the Supergrid bestows, will win. Particularly if it takes first mover advantage.
  6. On closer inspection the Supergrid is comprised of some 113 Supernodes and interconnecting cables. These comprise a network.  This network allows the transport of electricity from anywhere in the system to anywhere else in the system.  In this way the variability of wind and solar are partially compensated for.  We say partially because there will still be need for storage of electricity.  However the need for storage, which is expensive and loses electricity, will be greatly reduced.
  7. Politically Europe will be united as it never has been in the past. Mutual Interdependence, which was the Jean Monet’s rational for the then Coal and Steel community will be baked into that fundamental human need for energy.  The Czech people could be supplied by a combination of electricity generated in the Irish sea and on Crete.
  8. The cost of the Supergrid:
    • Cost will be greatly influenced by the types of research done, and the resultant technology deployed in its construction.  The grid component will be in the range €1 to 2 trillion.  The generation cost will be dependent on the water depth in which the turbines are built and the wind speed they capture.  Solar PV will be lower in cost and will be largely on land.  The combined cost of constructing wind and solar generation plant will be in the order of €1.5 trillion.
    • All this spend can happen in Europe if Europe can supply the products and components needed to construct the Supergrid
    • The Supergrid will work on every continent and indeed between continents, so there is the opportunity for European companies to meet global demand
    • Supply chains are global but nevertheless those that take first mover advantage will get to create the most profits, cash flow, and employment.
  9. Employment:
    • Politically the EU and national Governments can learn from the Danish and German experience when deploying a new industry: wind turbine manufacturing. Due to the opening of markets by the EU and the implementation of the REFIT by the 2 governments Germany created 8 jobs for every megawatt that was installed.  Still the hub of World wind turbine manufacturing, research, and logistics is in a stretch of land from the Dutch border to mid Denmank on Jutland and including Hamburg, Emden, and Aurich.
    • The European Court of Justice protected the fledgling wind industry from predation by E-ON who tried to have the new industry shut down.
    • The ideological British had an academic lead in wind turbine design. They failed however because they insisted on a competitive structure of deployment from the outset.  They lost first mover advantage and never recovered, in terms of company creation and employment.
    • The US, the nominal home of free enterprise, is very liberal in its tax code, when it comes to helping new industry get established.
    • Employment creation is enhanced when new industries are afforded a measure of encouragement and protection ab initio. Business, National Government and the organs of the EU will need to be aligned to capture the employment content that will attend the build-out of the Supergrid.