Today, the IEA released a comprehensive roadmap for the global energy sector to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. The report shows there is still a pathway to net-zero by 2050 but it is narrow and will continue shrinking unless governments act now.
The report is published in a crucial year for climate action, and it will be discussed at length during COP26 in November. Prior to that Dr. Fatih Birol, IEA executive director, will have a chance to present it at the Dublin Climate Dialogues initiated by SuperNode founder and Chairman Eddie O’Connor, which begin tomorrow the 19th of May.
The IEA report outlines the pathway to Net-Zero Emissions (NZE) which refers to a scenario consistent with limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C. It sees wind energy and solar PV’s share of global electricity generation grow from 9% today to 40% in 2030 and 68% in 2050 at which point total electricity generation will have nearly tripled.
SuperNode CEO John Fitzgerald today commented on the IEA report:
“I believe the publishing of this report is an important milestone in the energy sector facing up to their responsibilities in addressing climate change. The scale of the transition, the investments needed, and the speed required is now accepted as mainstream. Governments must now accept responsibility and do everything they can to focus on the policies, technologies, markets and infrastructure that can eliminate greenhouse gases”.
Figure 3.10 is taken from the IEA report, showing global electricity generation by source through to 2050.
Global Power Sector
One of the most staggering takeaways from the report is in the global power sector. The report states that in order to achieve NZE:
“Emissions from electricity fall to zero in 2035 in advanced economies and to zero in emerging markets and developing economies around 2040.”
This sends an incendiary message to governments across the world, that their climate pledges, even if successful, will not prevent a 1.5°C rise and that they must do even more.
Infrastructure
Furthermore, NZE sees:
“Solar PV and wind become the leading sources of electricity before 2030, each generating over 23,000 TWh per year in 2050.”
This is a far cry from current global electricity mix in which solar PV (821 TWh) and wind (1,592 TWh) account for 9%.
By 2030, solar PV (6,970 TWh) and wind (8,008 TWh) would need to produce more electricity globally than coal (2,947 TWh), natural gas (6,222 TWh) and nuclear (3,777 TWh) combined.
The infrastructure required for such an increase in renewable energy would be extreme and stretches beyond wind turbines and solar panels. Huge investment will be needed in grid infrastructure:
“Timely investment in grids to minimise congestion and expand the size of the areas where supply and demand are balanced will be critical”
“Expanding long‐distance transmission also makes a key contribution in the NZE, since a lack of available land near demand centres and other factors mean new sources of generation are often located in remote areas”
“By 2050, without changes in electricity market design, about 7% of wind and solar output in the NZE would be above and beyond what can be integrated (and so curtailed), and the share of zero‐price hours in the year would increase to around 30% in major markets from close to zero today”
Innovation
The report also stresses the importance of innovation, stating that almost 50% of CO2 emission reductions in 2050 will come from technologies currently at demonstration or prototype stage. This only underlines how crucial the role of governments will be:
“Bringing new energy technologies to market can often take several decades, but the imperative of reaching net‐zero emissions globally by 2050 means that progress has to be much faster. Experience has shown that the role of government is crucial in shortening the time needed to bring new technology to market and to diffuse it widely”
The full report can be found here: https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050?utm_content=buffer5688e&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter-ieabirol&utm_campaign=buffer